US election live blog

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📍 Pinned Justin Bergman, International Affairs Editor

Welcome to our live blog of the US election, where we will be posting the latest news, results and snap analysis from some of our top academic experts, as well as the politics editors at The Conversation, throughout what will no doubt be a long, drama-filled day. (Perhaps a couple days…)

Here’s what to expect: the results will start coming in after 10am AEDT when the first polls close. Then, there will be a deluge of results every hour after that. We will wait for The Associated Press to call individual states. And we’ll update our interactive map and our Electoral College vote count tracker as the day goes on. Remember: it’s 270 electoral votes to win.

Before the results come in, here are a couple of early reads: Emma Shortis on whether America is ready to elect a woman^[1] and John Hart with a short history of the Electoral College^[2].

⏺ 7.00am Jared Mondschein^[3]

More than anything else I’m watching Pennsylvania today. Out of the seven battleground states, it has the biggest population (13 million) and the most Electoral College votes (19). And it was decisive for electing both Donald Trump in 2016 (he won by fewer than 45,000 votes) and Joe Biden in 2020 (a margin of 80,000 votes).

Yet, as closely as everyone will be watching it, the state does not start counting mail-in ballots until the morning of election day. In 2020, it took four days for The Associated Press to call the state for Biden. We may have a similarly long wait in Pennsylvania again.

⏺ 6.30am Emma Shortis^[4]

It was too perfect - when I got in the Uber that was taking me to the Harris rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday, Taylor Swift was playing on the radio.

Cos I’ve got a blank space baby, and I’ll write your name

There were so many women at the rally. They absolutely adored Kamala Harris, and saved their biggest cheers for her lines on reproductive freedom. If Harris wins, it will surely be via women’s turnout – the Black women who were there in huge numbers, alongside the suburban white women who could have been mistaken for Elizabeth Warren’s sister.

That’s why I’ll be watching the exit polls for the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina so closely on election day – both states with draconian abortion bans. Women’s turnout in those states will give us a very good idea of what’s to come.

The day before I went to Charlotte, I did a tour of the Capitol building in Washington, DC. As the guide pointed out to us – the Statue of Freedom that sits atop the Capitol dome is a woman.

References

1. ^{^} whether America is ready to elect a woman (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} history of the Electoral College (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} Jared Mondschein (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Emma Shortis (theconversation.com)