Byelections show Labor is in trouble in Victoria – but how much will Peter Dutton benefit?
- Written by: Paul Strangio, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Monash University
Is history repeating itself in Labor’s fortress state of Victoria?
At the 1990 federal election, Bob Hawke’s Labor government had a near-death experience when it lost nine seats[1] in Victoria. A furious Hawke laid the blame squarely at the feet of John Cain’s state Labor government, which was listing badly in its third term due especially to a series of financial calamities.
Less than six months later, a broken Cain, one of Victoria’s great reformist premiers, resigned. His successor was Joan Kirner, the state’s first woman leader. Despite battling gamely, she was unable to avert a landslide Labor defeat in 1992.
Wind forward to the present and there are some eerily similar dynamics. Anthony Albanese’s government will shortly head to the polls at a time when Jacinta Allan’s ageing Labor administration is in deep political strife[2] in a state groaning under mountainous public debt.
Labor decline
Saturday’s twin byelection results highlight state Labor’s parlous position. In the inner urban seat of Prahran, the ALP was so accepting of its lack of competitiveness that it didn’t field a candidate[3].
The Liberal Party achieved a modest primary vote swing[4] of 4.8%, which was enough to snatch the decade-long held Greens seat.
In the outer western suburban seat of Werribee, Labor’s primary vote collapsed[5] by more than 16%. But the Liberal Party only increased its first vote by a relatively paltry 3.7%. To put that in perspective, the Victorian Socialists enjoyed an equivalent lift in support[6].
Inevitably, much ink is being spilt trying to divine what these byelection results portend for the Albanese government. In short, whether the unpopularity of the Allan government threatens to unseat federal Labor and open the door to a Peter Dutton prime ministership.
State stronghold
Victoria has been a citadel for the ALP, both state and federal, for decades. John Howard’s dubbing of the state as the “Massachusetts of Australia[8]” has become almost cliched so often it is invoked by journalists as a shorthand way of describing Victoria’s predisposition for left-of-centre voting behaviour. It is a label first ascribed to Victoria in the 19th century showing how long it has been known for its progressive political temperament. It is a trait coiled in the state’s political DNA.
Following the 2022 federal election, the Coalition held only 11 out of 39 seats[9] in Victoria. The Liberals were nearly banished entirely from metropolitan Melbourne, where they now hold just two electorates, Deakin and Menzies (the fringe outer suburban seats of Casey and La Trobe are classified by the AEC as rural and provincial respectively).
To compound matters, boundary redistributions[10] have since wiped out the Liberals’ margin in Deakin and turned Menzies into a notional Labor seat. All of this means that the federal Coalition must perform substantially better in Victoria, and specifically Melbourne, if its to have a viable path to power.
State Labor’s political doldrums have offered some hope to Dutton, who is targeting four seats in Victoria[12], and at a stretch, five: Aston, Chisholm, Goldstein (held by the Teal, Zoe Daniel), McEwen and Dunkley. Notably, only three of those seats – Aston, McEwen and Dunkley – are outer suburban. And the latter is considered the least likely to fall.
Dutton’s pitch to the suburbs
Nonetheless, the outer suburbs are a key to Dutton’s election strategy. It’s where he is seeking a major realignment of Australia’s electoral politics by pillaging traditional Labor working class and lower middle class voters.
This strategy isn’t unprecedented. The so-called “battler[13]” vote was a component, albeit exaggerated, of John Howard’s formula for electoral success as he reoriented the Liberal Party towards conservative populism. Dutton is aggressively doubling down[14] on that pivot.
The Werribee result, however, can hardly be construed as a harbinger of Liberals storming the ramparts of the outer suburbs. The party’s primary vote[15] in the byelection was only 29%, indicating voters in such areas, which are characterised by breakneck growth and a tsunami of demographic change, are still wary of the local Liberals.
That scepticism is understandable. For years now, the Victorian Liberal party has been deeply dysfunctional[16]. It has been consumed by ideological and personal feuds, out of sync with the state’s progressive attitudes, low on talent, and seemingly habituated to reposing in opposition rather than presenting as a serious alternative government.
But, even allowing for such Victorian specific factors (and it is far from the only under-performing Liberal division across the country – think of South Australia and Western Australia), the Werribee result suggests Dutton’s outer suburban focus will not easily yield sizeable dividends, and certainly not in one electoral cycle. It will be a slow burn at best.
In the meantime, if the Liberals are to win government, they will need to make up ground in inner and middle metropolitan electorates, including Teal-held seats, to which Dutton is far less attuned.
Major party disenchantment
What Saturday’s byelections mostly underscored is the dissatisfaction with all of the established parties, including the Greens[17], whose vote flat-lined in both Prahran and Werribee.
The disenchantment was expressed in the approximate one third of votes[18] that went to a melange of other parties or independent candidates. This is consistent with the trend that so dramatically materialised at the 2022 federal election when a fractious public voted along increasingly fragmented lines.
Rather than any party enjoying a grand sweep of the outer suburbs or elsewhere, that is what we can expect at the impending federal election: volatility and unpredictability which is confirmed as the new normal.
References
- ^ lost nine seats (findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au)
- ^ deep political strife (www.afr.com)
- ^ field a candidate (www.heraldsun.com.au)
- ^ primary vote swing (theconversation.com)
- ^ primary vote collapsed (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ equivalent lift in support (vec.vic.gov.au)
- ^ Diego Fidele/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ Massachusetts of Australia (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ 11 out of 39 seats (www.aec.gov.au)
- ^ boundary redistributions (antonygreen.com.au)
- ^ Joel Carrett/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ targeting four seats in Victoria (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ battler (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ aggressively doubling down (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ primary vote (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ deeply dysfunctional (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Greens (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ one third of votes (www.abc.net.au)
Authors: Paul Strangio, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Monash University
