Greens leader Adam Bandt and Teal Zoe Daniel likely to lose their seats
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
With 80% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is giving[1] Labor 87 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition 40, the Greens zero and all Others ten, with 13 seats remaining undecided.
Based on votes realigned to a Greens vs Labor two candidate count in Melbourne[2], the ABC has Greens leader Adam Bandt trailing Labor by almost 4,400 votes (52.9–47.1). This would be a 9.4% swing to Labor from the Greens since the 2022 election. Analyst Kevin Bonham agrees with the ABC’s estimate[3]. Primary votes are 40.3% Bandt (down 4.4%), 31.5% Labor (up 5.8%) and 19.1% Liberals (down 0.5%).
Bandt had won Melbourne by 60.2–39.8 against Labor at the 2022 election, but his margin was reduced to 56.5–43.5 by an unfavourable redistribution. Bandt has become hated by the right, so it’s natural that their preferences would go to Labor ahead of Bandt.
If this result is confirmed, the Greens will have lost three of their four House seats. In the fourth seat (Ryan), The Poll Bludger’s projections[4] have the Greens just ahead of Labor when one of these parties is excluded, so they will probably beat the Liberal National Party on Labor preferences.
Despite these losses, the Greens overall vote[5] has held up, down 0.5% to 11.8%. It’s likely the Greens will improve when absent votes start being counted; these votes were cast outside a voter’s home electorate.
The problem for the Greens is that their vote has become too dispersed and not concentrated enough to win single-member seats. In the proportional Senate[6], the Greens have performed far better, holding all their six seats that were last elected in 2019 (one from each state).
Liberal Tim Wilson gains Goldstein
The ABC has called a Liberal gain[7] in Goldstein, with Teal independent incumbent Zoe Daniel defeated by a current margin of 684 votes. Daniel won on ordinary votes[8], which include election day and pre-poll votes cast within Goldstein, by 51.8–48.2. But the nearly 14,000 postals counted so far have favoured Wilson by a huge 64–36, and there’s still at least 6,000 postals to be counted.
In other close Teal vs Liberal contests, an amendment to a pre-poll booth[10] hurt the Teal in Liberal-held Bradfield[11], and she now trails by 178 votes. Postals that have heavily favoured the Liberal are almost finished, and the Teal may be able to regain the lead on other vote types.
In Kooyong[12], incumbent Teal Monique Ryan leads the Liberals by 622 votes. Ryan won ordinary votes by 52.3–47.7, but she’s losing the 14,000 postals counted so far by 62–38, and there’s still at least 6,500 postals to be counted.
Other close seats
The electoral commission is still realigning the two candidate count in Bendigo, Bean and Fremantle. The ABC estimates Labor[13] has an 1,183 vote lead over the Nationals in Bendigo, a 355 vote lead over a Teal independent in Fremantle, but Labor trails a Teal independent in Bean by 943 votes.
In Liberal-held Menzies[14], Labor leads by almost 1,400 votes and should win, as the Liberal-favouring postals are nearly finished. In Labor-held Bullwinkel[15], Labor leads the Liberals by 50 votes and should extend their lead once vote types other than postals start being counted. In LNP-held Longman[16], the LNP leads Labor by 439 votes, but postals are nearly finished and Labor may regain the lead on other vote types.
References
- ^ ABC is giving (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Melbourne (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ agrees with the ABC’s estimate (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
- ^ The Poll Bludger’s projections (pollbludger.net)
- ^ Greens overall vote (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ proportional Senate (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ ABC has called a Liberal gain (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ ordinary votes (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Diego Fedele/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ amendment to a pre-poll booth (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Bradfield (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Kooyong (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
- ^ ABC estimates Labor (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Menzies (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Bullwinkel (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
- ^ Longman (tallyroom.aec.gov.au)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
