Labor leads in two Victorian state polls, but Premier Jacinta Allan’s approval tanks

Labor leads in Victorian state polls by Newspoll and Redbridge, but Premier Jacinta Allan is very unpopular. Two federal polls give Labor big leads and a Tasmanian poll suggests Tasmanians would support Labor seeking to form a government with the Greens and independents.

The next Victorian state election will be held in November 2026. The first Newspoll^[1] since the 2022 election was conducted June 23–30, but no sample size was given. It gave Labor a 53–47 lead (55.0–45.0 to Labor at the last election). Primary votes were 35% Labor, 35% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all Others.

Despite the clear Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s net approval was a dismal -31, with 61% dissatisfied and 30% satisfied. Liberal leader Brad Battin led Allan as preferred premier by 41–36. Battin had a net approval of -5.

Just 25% said Labor deserved to be re-elected, while 59% said it was time to give someone else a go. But by 60–40, voters were not confident the Coalition was ready to govern.

The Poll Bludger^[2] said that by 59–32, voters supported the Suburban Rail Loop, but they were worried rather than confident by huge margins on four policy areas: state debt (78% worried, 13% confident), law and order (76–20), hospitals (71–25) and housing (78–16).

A Victorian Redbridge poll^[3] for The Herald Sun, conducted June 19–30 from a sample of 1,183, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the last Victorian Redbridge poll in April. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down three), 33% Labor (up four), 14% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (down two).

By 55–27, voters did not think the Allan government had the right focus and priorities. But by 45–26, they did not think Battin and the Coalition had done enough to deserve to win the next election.

Labor has held government in Victoria since they won the 2014 election, and for all but one term (2010–14) since they won the 1999 election. By November 2026, Labor will have governed for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27 years. It’s reasonable to expect an “it’s time” factor at the next election.

It’s plausible that federal Labor’s surprise landslide at the May 3 election has assisted Labor at other levels of government. Normally a government with a premier at -31 net approval would be way behind on voting intentions.

The Coalition will hope that any boost for state Labor from the federal election will be temporary. There’s still a long time until the next state election, so Labor could fall back as voters focus more on state politics.

Another possible explanation for Labor’s lead despite a very unpopular premier is the infighting within the Liberals over the fallout between John Pesutto and Moira Deeming.

Redbridge and DemosAU federal polls have big Labor leads

A national Redbridge poll^[4], conducted in late June from a sample of 4,036, was reported by The Financial Review. Labor led by 55.5–44.5, almost unchanged from the election result (55.2–44.8 to Labor). Primary votes were 37% Labor, 31% Coalition, 11% Greens and 21% for all Others. One Nation is likely to have made up a high proportion of Others, otherwise Labor’s two-party lead would be higher.

This poll gave Labor a 68–32 lead with those aged 18–34 and a 57–43 lead with those aged 35–49. With those aged 50–64, there was a 50–50 tie, while the Coalition led by 55–45 with those aged 65 and older. The Greens’ primary vote was 24% with the youngest demographic, but just 2% with the oldest.

A national DemosAU poll^[5], conducted July 5–6 from a sample of 1,199, gave Labor a 59–41 lead, from primary votes of 36% Labor, 26% Coalition, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation and 15% for all Others. Education breakdowns had Labor winning by 55–45 with school-educated people, 61–39 with those with a TAFE education and 59–41 with the university educated.

After their landslide re-election, Labor is getting a second honeymoon in the polls. One Nation was overstated at the election^[6], but perhaps their increase from 6.4% then reflects dissatisfaction on the right with Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberals.

YouGov Tasmanian poll on hung parliament options

The Tasmanian state election will be held on July 19, only 16 months after the previous election in March 2024. Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, and polls suggest another hung parliament is likely^[7]. A YouGov poll, conducted June 12–16 from a sample of 842 for The Australia Institute, was reported by The Tasmanian Times^[8] on Wednesday.

Voting intentions were not released, but results of questions were released on whether Labor or the Liberals should seek to form a government with the Greens and independents if they were not elected in their own right.

For Labor, by 55–31 voters agreed they should seek to form such a government, including 61–25 agree with Labor voters. For the Liberals, by 48–37 voters agreed they should try to form such a government, but Liberal voters disagreed by 46–45.

References

1. ^{^} Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
2. ^{^} Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
3. ^{^} Redbridge poll (www.heraldsun.com.au)
4. ^{^} Redbridge poll (www.afr.com)
5. ^{^} DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
6. ^{^} overstated at the election (theconversation.com)
7. ^{^} hung parliament is likely (theconversation.com)
8. ^{^} The Tasmanian Times (tasmaniantimes.com)