Labor rebounds to leads in Victorian and Queensland Resolve polls

Victorian and Queensland state Resolve polls both show Labor rebounding from big deficits to now lead. In Tasmania, Josh Willie from the left faction replaces Dean Winter as Labor leader.

A Victorian state Resolve poll^[1] for The Age, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample more than 1,000, gave the Coalition 33% of the primary vote (down eight since March), Labor 32% (up eight), the Greens 12% (down two), independents 9% (down five) and others 13% (up six).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but The Poll Bludger estimated^[2] a Labor lead by about 53–47. Labor had been far behind in March.

Despite the big gain for Labor on voting intentions, Liberal leader Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 32–25 as preferred premier (36–23 in March). This measure normally favours the incumbent more than voting intentions. Battin’s lead may indicate that Labor’s recovery is mostly due to the federal election result.

The Age’s article said Labor’s primary vote was 30% in July, before Allan announced her working from home policy, and it improved to 34% in August. A national Resolve poll had voters supporting working from home at least two days a week by 64–17. Allan’s net likeability surged 11 points^[3], but is still at -21.

This poll agrees with late June Newspoll and Redbridge^[4] polls in giving Labor a lead in Victoria. The next Victorian state election is not due until November 2026.

While Labor has rebounded, they could fall back if voters focus more on state issues or if federal Labor’s popularity subsides. By the next election, Labor will have governed Victoria for the last 12 years, and 23 of the last 27 years, so the Liberals should benefit from an “it’s time” factor. However, the Liberals have their own problems with internal divisions.

Labor also rebounds in Queensland

A Queensland state Resolve poll^[5] for The Brisbane Times, conducted in July and August from a sample of 869, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote (down 11 since the January to April Resolve poll), Labor 32% (up ten), the Greens 10% (down two), One Nation 8% (steady), independents 8% (up one) and others 7% (up one).

Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated^[6] there would be a very narrow Labor lead after preferences.

LNP premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was up two points to +20, as this was question last asked before the LNP won the October 2024 election. Labor leader Steven Miles, who was premier before the election, improved his net likeability 12 points to -1. Crisafulli led by 40–25 as preferred premier (44–22 in January to April).

Unlike Victoria, other recent Queesland polls disagree with Resolve. Early July Queensland polls from Redbridge and DemosAU^[7] gave the LNP a 55–45 or 56–44 lead.

New Tasmanian Labor leader

On Tuesday, Labor failed to gain support^[8] for its no-confidence motion in the Tasmanian Liberal government from any non-Labor MP, despite the five Greens and four of six others being left-leaning. With Labor losing the July 19 election, the party leadership was spilled.