Labor retains big lead in Newspoll and all other federal polls

Labor retains a large lead in three new national polls including Newspoll, while many more voters thought Labor’s 2035 emissions reduction target too ambitious rather than not ambitious enough.

A national Newspoll, conducted September 29 to October 2 from a sample of 1,264, gave Labor a 57–43 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.

Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 28% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 11% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all Others (down two). It’s the highest primary vote for Labor since June 2023, while the Coalition’s primary vote has recovered one point from a record low last time^[1].

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up four points to -1, with 48% dissatisfied and 47% satisfied. Sussan Ley’s net approval slid three points to a new low of -20, and she has lost 11 points on net approval since August. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 52–30 (51–31 previously).

On house prices^[2], 34% wanted them to increase relative to inflation, 30% stay the same and 30% decrease. About 40% of those who either owned their houses outright or with a mortgage wanted prices to increase, but 60% of renters wanted prices to decrease.

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The plus signs show the individual polls and a trend line has been fitted.

The trend line shows Albanese’s ratings recovered from their lows before the May federal election, and have continued their recovery. However, his ratings are far below where they were at the start of Labor’s first term.

Despite generally negative ratings for Albanese, Labor had its biggest win in a federal election since 1943^[3], and they have continued to dominate the polls since that election, with the Coalition remaining uncompetitive in all polls.

I believe Labor’s dominance is much more due to voters’ dislike for the alternative government than their liking for Labor and Albanese. Donald Trump is a key negative for the Coalition in Australia.

While One Nation’s support is increasing and they are now ahead of the Greens in some polls, their increased support has come at the Coalition’s expense, leading to clear Labor leads on primary votes as well as two-party.

Essential poll

A national Essential poll^[4], conducted September 24–28 from a sample of 1,001, gave Labor a 51–44 lead by respondent preferences including undecided. Primary votes were 35% Labor, 27% Coalition, 13% One Nation, 11% Greens, 8% for all Others and 6% undecided.

The all Others vote share is likely too low, with all Others getting 15% at the May election^[5]. By 2025 election preference flows, this poll would give Labor above a 55–45 lead.

Albanese’s net approval was down eight points since August to -2, while Ley’s net approval was down seven to -9.

On Australia’s recently announced 2035 emissions target^[6] of 62–70% below 2005 levels, 48% said it was about right, 39% too ambitious and just 13% not ambitious enough. By 67–33, respondents did not think it likely we would meet this target.

By 60–40, respondents thought it was important for Albanese to meet Donald Trump. By 58–17, they wanted Australia to be less like the US. By 44–22, they were generally pessimistic about the future.

On immigration, 53% thought the 2025/26 financial year cap of 185,000 places too high, 40% about right and just 7% too low. Respondents were tied 41–41 on whether immigration was generally positive or negative for Australia (a 42–42 tie in August 2024).

By 34–30, respondents supported Australia recognising Palestine, unchanged since August. By 63–19, they supported the social media ban on children under 16 years (67–17 in September 2024).

YouGov poll

The Poll Bludger reported^[7] a national YouGov poll, conducted September 25–30 from a sample of 1,329, gave Labor a 56–44 lead. Primary votes were 34% Labor, 27% Coalition, 12% Greens, 12% One Nation, 8% independents and 7% others.

Albanese’s net approval was -4, while Ley’s net approval was -19. Albanese led Ley by 50–28 as better PM.

References

1. ^{^} record low last time (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} house prices (www.theaustralian.com.au)
3. ^{^} biggest win in a federal election since 1943 (theconversation.com)
4. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
5. ^{^} getting 15% at the May election (theconversation.com)
6. ^{^} recently announced 2035 emissions target (essentialreport.com.au)
7. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported (www.pollbludger.net)