One Nation gains in polls as budget is poorly received in Newspoll

In three credible post-budget polls, One Nation is up one to three points, with their victory at the May 9 Farrer byelection probably also contributing. Labor took a hit in Freshwater and Resolve, but not Newspoll.

Despite the hit in Resolve, they are still comfortably ahead, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition.

The total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was up two points to 47% in both Newspoll and Resolve, but it was up three points to 51% in Freshwater. Angus Taylor led Anthony Albanese as preferred PM in Freshwater and Resolve, but Albanese retained a clear lead in Newspoll.

In Newspoll’s history of budget polling, this budget is the second worst on economic impact and the third worst on personal impact.

In state politics, Labor has narrowly held the Queensland seat of Stafford at a byelection, but there was a 4% two-party swing to the LNP.

Newspoll

A national Newspoll^[1], conducted May 14–17 from a sample of 1,252, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (steady since the mid-April Newspoll^[2]), One Nation 27% (up three), the Coalition 20% (down one), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 10% (down one).

Labor would lead the Coalition by about 54–46 if 2025 election preference flows were applied to the primary votes, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval was steady at -17, with 57% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Taylor’s net approval was up one point to -12 (48% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 46–38 (46–37 previously).

Newspoll has asked three questions after every budget since 1988: whether the budget was good or bad for the economy, good or bad for you personally and whether the opposition would have delivered a better budget.

This budget’s economic net score^[3] of -25 (47% bad, 22% good) is the second worst, behind only 1993’s -42. The personal impact net score of -41 (52% worse off, 11% better off) was the third worst, behind -70 in 1993 and -64 in 2014.

However, by 47–39 respondents thought the Coalition would not have delivered a better budget. This score is about par for Labor governments and explains why the government didn’t take a hit on voting intentions.

By 48–9, respondents thought this budget would make inflation worse^[4] rather than better (38–14 after the 2024 budget). By 39–7, they thought they would pay more tax rather than less.

This is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a smoothed line.

Resolve poll

A national Resolve poll^[5] for Nine newspapers, conducted May 13–16 from a sample of 1,800, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down three since the mid-April Resolve poll^[6]), One Nation 24% (up two), the Coalition 23% (steady), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (up one) and others 5% (steady).

With One Nation ahead of the Coalition, Resolve didn’t give a two-party estimate. Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes gives Labor about a 52.5–47.5 lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -22, with 56% giving him a poor rating and 34% a good rating. Taylor’s net approval was down seven points to +8 (37% good, 29% poor). Taylor led Albanese as preferred PM by 33–30 (previously 33–32 to Albanese).

Pauline Hanson’s net likeability was up six points to +12, Taylor’s was down five points to +11, Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ was down nine points to -9 and Albanese’s was down one point to -13.

By 35–24, respondents thought the budget would be bad for them personally. But by 36–21, they supported the changes to the capital gains tax. By 35–21, they supported the changes to negative gearing and by 34–21 they supported the changes to family trusts.

Freshwater poll: Labor tied with Coalition

A national Freshwater poll^[7] for News Corp, conducted May 13–15 from a sample of 1,384, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down three since the late April Freshwater poll^[8]), One Nation 26% (up one), the Coalition 25% (up two), the Greens 11% (down one) and all Others 9% (up one).

By respondent preferences, Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50–50, a three-point gain for the Coalition. This would also be roughly the result using 2025 election preference flows.

Albanese’s net favourability slumped ten points to -19, while Taylor’s was down one point to +9. Taylor led Albanese by 41–40 as preferred PM (44–38 to Albanese previously).

On the budget, by 47–18, respondents were dissatisfied with the overall budget. By 39–25, they did not think the changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing would meaningfully improve housing affordability. Changes to capital gains tax were opposed by 38–31, while support and opposition to negative gearing and family trusts changes were “evenly divided”.

By 46–21, respondents thought the budget would worsen rather than improve the economy. On the negative gearing changes, 54% said the government broke a promise and should have taken it to an election first, 29% that they broke a promise but governments should be free to adapt policy between elections and 17% said they hadn’t broken a promise.

Wolf and Smith poll

The Financial Review reported a national Wolf and Smith poll^[9] that was conducted May 13 from a sample of 1,002. This poll did not report voting intentions.

By 38–26, respondents supported the capital gains tax changes and by 41–27 they supported the negative gearing changes.

The impact of the changes was regarded as positive by 37–20 on those who own their home outright, but negative for five other groups: young people (37–34), those looking to buy a home (38–34), the whole country (40–27), investors (47–21), those paying a mortgage (43–16) and renters (45–16).

Morgan SMS poll

A national Morgan SMS poll^[10], conducted May 13–14 from a sample of 2,348, gave One Nation 32% of the primary vote, Labor 28.5%, the Coalition 16.5%, the Greens 11.5% and all Others 11.5%. By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 51–49 and the Coalition by 55–45.

This poll used a different methodology to Morgan’s normal weekly federal polls, which have a relatively low One Nation vote. SMS polls may be prone to motivated respondent bias.

By 59–40, respondents disapproved of Albanese’s performance. By 57–42.5, they disapproved of Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer.

Labor narrowly holds Stafford at Queensland byelection

A byelection occurred in the Queensland state seat of Stafford on Saturday, after the death of former Labor MP Jimmy Sullivan (who had been expelled by Labor in May 2025 over domestic violence issues).

The ABC’s figures^[11] have Labor retaining by 51.2–48.8 against the Liberal National Party (LNP), a 4.1% swing to the LNP since the 2024 election. Current primary votes are 40.4% LNP (up 2.3%), 30.7% Labor (down 8.1%), 14.6% Greens (down 3.5%), 3.8% for independent Liam Parry, representing the unregistered Queensland Socialists (new) and 3.0% Legalise Cannabis (new). One Nation didn’t contest after getting 3.2% in 2024.

The Queensland electoral commission provides preference flows by candidate on election night. The Poll Bludger said Labor^[12] won Greens preferences by 86–14, Parry’s preferences by 82–18 and Legalise Cannabis preferences by 60–40. The strong Greens flow to Labor was despite the Greens issuing an “open” how to vote card without a preference recommendation.

If not for strong preference flows from the Greens and Parry, Labor would have lost Stafford. This was a bad result for Labor. Although Stafford was a state byelection, the federal budget probably contributed to the result.

References

1. ^{^} Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
2. ^{^} mid-April Newspoll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} economic net score (origin.theaustralian.com.au)
4. ^{^} budget would make inflation worse (origin.theaustralian.com.au)
5. ^{^} Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
6. ^{^} mid-April Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
7. ^{^} Freshwater poll (www.heraldsun.com.au)
8. ^{^} late April Freshwater poll (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} Wolf and Smith poll (www.afr.com)
10. ^{^} Morgan SMS poll (www.roymorgan.com)
11. ^{^} ABC’s figures (www.abc.net.au)
12. ^{^} Poll Bludger said Labor (www.pollbludger.net)