DemosAU MRP poll has Labor winning clear majority of House seats on just 27% of primary vote
- Written by: Weekend Times
A federal DemosAU MRP poll gave Labor a clear majority of House of Representatives seats on just 27% of the primary vote, with One Nation slumping from 60 seats in the May
to July MRP poll to 24 in this one.
With the Victorian election on November 28, a Resolve poll has the Greens gaining three points to 15% with the Coalition, Labor and One Nation unchanged.
Federal DemosAU MRP poll
Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls use modelling and large sample sizes to estimate the outcome of each House of Representatives seat if an election were held now. Long fieldwork periods mean they can’t be used to infer recent poll trends.
A DemosAU MRP poll for Capital Brief, conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9,740, had a central projection with Labor winning 84 of the 150 House seats (up 16 since the May to July DemosAU MRP poll). This gives Labor well over the 76 needed for a majority.
The Coalition was winning 34 seats (up 21), One Nation 24 (down 36), the Greens zero (down three) and all Others eight (up two).
Labor’s seat range was 72–85, suggesting they were lucky to be winning 84 seats in the central projection. The Coalition’s seat range was 25–44, One Nation’s 22–35, the Greens’ 0–3 and Others’ 5–10.
National primary votes in this MRP poll were 27% Labor (up one since the last MRP poll), 26% One Nation (down four), 22% Coalition (up one), 13% Greens (steady) and 12% Others (up two).
One Nation’s primary vote in rural and regional seats was down seven points to 34%. In One Nation vs Coalition contests, Labor voters’ preferences strongly favoured the Coalition. In Labor vs One Nation contests, Coalition voters’ preferences flowed to One Nation at a weaker rate than One Nation flows to the Coalition.
Morgan poll
Morgan is now releasing federal polls once a fortnight instead of every week. The latest poll, conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2,655, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (steady since the September 14–27 Morgan poll), One Nation 24% (down 1.5), the Coalition 21.5% (down one), the Greens 15% (steady) and all Others 13.5% (up 2.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led the Coalition by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53.5–46.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.
This poll corroborates the federal Newspoll and Resolve polls by showing a drop for both the Coalition and One Nation.
Victorian Resolve poll
The Victorian election is on November 28. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted October 6–10 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 28% of the primary vote (steady since the early September Resolve poll), Labor 25% (steady), One Nation 23% (steady), the Greens 15% (up three), independents 4% (down four) and others 5% (steady).
No two-party estimate was released, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated the Coalition led Labor by about 52–48, a one-point gain for Labor. If this occurred, the Coalition would probably need to govern with One Nation’s support.
Labor Premier Ben Carroll’s net likeability slumped nine points to -11. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was up four points to +23. In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson had 29% (up one), Carroll 22% (up two) and One Nation state leader Warren Pickering 14% (up six).
On what was having the biggest influence on their vote, 27% said government spending and debt, and 21% youth crime. With Greens voters, 24% selected AI and data centres, compared to 13% overall.
The graph below shows a gap between Labor’s two-party vote against the Coalition in Redbridge compared with other recent Victorian polls. The two most recent Redbridge polls have both given the Coalition a 56–44 lead over Labor, while other recent polls have given the Coalition a more modest 52–48 or 53–47 lead.
If the Coalition is ahead by 56–44, they will probably win a majority of the 88 lower house seats in their own right. With the other polls, the Coalition is likely to need One Nation’s support.
The Greens are gaining in Victorian polls, with their primary vote at 15% in Resolve and 16% in Redbridge.
Queensland Resolve poll has LNP still well ahead
A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the September and October federal Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 32% of the primary vote (down two since the August Resolve poll), Labor 24% (down one), One Nation 21% (up one), the Greens 11% (up one), independents 7% (up one) and others 4% (down one).
No two-party estimate was provided, but Bonham estimated the LNP led Labor by about 55–45.
LNP premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability improved four points to +20, near his record high of +21 in February. Labor leader Steven Miles’ net likeability was steady at -6. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 41–24 (previously 41–22).
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
