Why Republicans are on the back foot ahead of US midterm elections

Next week, tens of millions of Americans will head to the polls to elect their representatives to the 120th US Congress. The race for the US president attracts the lion’s share of

global media attention every four years, but the midterms crucially shape the second half of presidential terms.

This year’s elections arrive amid a political pressure cooker of lawsuits, electoral disputes and accusations of interference by all sides of politics.

After almost two years of a pliant Republican-controlled legislature, President Donald Trump is bracing for the first nationwide electoral test of his second term.

So, what are midterm elections, and how might the results on November 3 shape the United States until a new president takes the oath of office on January 20 2029?

What are the midterm elections?

Every two years, both chambers of Congress get a shakeup. All 435 members of the lower house, the House of Representatives, are up for election. Around a third of the 100 senators who sit in the upper house face voters, too. This cycle, 36 governorships will also be on the ballot, along with a smattering of state-level contests for legislators and local officials.

When they fall outside a presidential year, these elections are called “midterms,” marking the rough midpoint of a president’s four-year term.

As the US government’s chief legislative body, the make-up of Congress decides each party’s ability to pass federal legislation and scrutinise the president. Most presidents in modern American history have at some point navigated a divided Congress, where the opposition party controls one or both legislative chambers.

What can we expect?

History tells us the president’s party is almost always punished in the midterms.

In the 2006 elections, during George W Bush’s presidency, Republicans lost 30 House seats. Four years later, the Democrats suffered a whopping 63 net-loss “shellacking” in Barack Obama’s first midterm test as president.

The Republican party is unlikely to defy this trend in 2026. Top election forecaster Charlie Cook has called a Democratic sweep of the House in November a “done deal”. Pundits project the Democrats will pick up at least five and as many as 30 House seats — enough to overcome the GOP’s razor-thin majority and take control of the chamber for the second half of Trump’s term.

However, the Republican majority in the powerful US Senate may be harder to overturn and could come down to the wire. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the chamber, which will likely hinge on the results of about seven hotly contested toss-up races.

Why are Republicans on the back foot?

While these midterms follow a familiar script, they might also be set to break historic patterns.

In the Senate, polling suggests Democrats may be on track for some significant pickups, including in reliably “red” (Republican) states that voted for Trump by double-digit margins in 2024.

The race in Kansas — currently a dead heat — could see the state elect its first Democratic senator in almost a century. Democrats appear to be competitive in Republican strongholds Ohio, Alaska and Iowa. Polls even suggest they could have a chance in Texas, where the party hasn’t won a single statewide office since 1994.

As the battleground map expands, Republicans are reportedly pouring millions of dollars into advertising to defend safe seats that could now be under threat.

So, why have these Republican strongholds — previously seen as unwinnable for Democrats — come into play this election cycle?

Of course, distinct, local dynamics are shaping individual races, such as the scandals plaguing Ken Paxton’s campaign in Texas and incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas. In Alaska, Republicans worry that a same-name challenger could confuse voters and siphon support away from Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a tight race.

But the midterms are ultimately a referendum on the sitting president. And right now, Trump’s approval rating is under water in 47 of the 50 US states.

Americans don’t trust him on trade, immigration or the economy. Seven in ten think the country is headed in the wrong direction. One survey found 48% of Americans say they are financially worse off compared to when Trump returned to office in 2025.

Pollsters are also predicting that a sizeable enthusiasm gap could play into Democrats’ hands on election day. Nearly half of the voters for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024 (48%) are very enthusiastic about voting in November. Less than a third of Trump supporters say the same.

Rusted-on Republicans might be unlikely to switch their political allegiance to the Democrats. But it could be just as damaging for the Republican Party if they don’t vote at all.

Is it a done deal?

While many commentators are predicting a “blue tsunami” will wipe out Republicans, others have argued there are reasons for caution when predicting the midterm result.

The Democrats remain deeply unpopular. Gerrymandering has tilted the electoral map in the Republicans’ favour.

And in what are already the most expensive midterm elections in history, Republicans continue to hold a clear financial advantage. Elon Musk alone has donated more than a quarter of a billion dollars to Republican groups, including his own voter turnout operation.

Moreover, even though polling has been accurate in recent midterm cycles, it has famously missed before.

If Trump is so powerful, do the midterms even matter?

With Trump wielding a level of executive power unmatched in modern US political history, the midterms may seem a minor distraction with little enduring impact on his presidency. In May this year, he said “I don’t care about the midterms”.

Yet, if the Democrats can flip one or both chambers, they would gain the power to launch House investigations and block nominations for top judicial and government. Congress can also pass legislation that overrides or restricts funding for presidential orders. It could even set the stage for Trump to face an unprecedented third impeachment.

The results will also offer an early — albeit imperfect — indication of “where partisan winds are blowing” as both parties eye the presidential primaries that kick off in early 2028.

Regardless of whether the president says he cares about the midterms, on November 3, millions of Americans will show they do.

Ava Kalinauskas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.