US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate^[1] of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.4, a gain for Trump since last Wednesday^[2], when Harris led by 48.8–47.2. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

In Silver’s poll averages, Trump is now 0.3% ahead in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), which was tied last Wednesday. He leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) by 1.3–1.4 points and in Arizona (11) by 2.1 points. Harris leads in Michigan (15 electoral votes) by 0.7 points and in Wisconsin (ten) by 0.5 points. In Nevada (six), it’s tied.

If the election results exactly reflect the current polls, Trump would win the Electoral College^[3] by 281–251 with Nevada’s six electoral votes undecided.

The good news for Harris is that state polls haven’t moved to Trump as much as national polls in the last two weeks. If Harris regains the lead in Pennsylvania, she will probably win. But Harris would likely be better placed in Pennsylvania now if she had made the popular Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro her running mate^[4].

Silver’s model now gives Trump a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, unchanged from last Wednesday. While Trump is barely ahead, it’s still effectively a 50–50 coin flip. There’s a 26% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast^[5] gives Trump a 54% win probability.

There’s just over a week until the election. If there’s late movement to either Harris or Trump or either candidate outperforms their polls, that candidate could win decisively. While the election appears very close now, it may not be so close once we see results.

Silver wrote Saturday that worries about illegal immigration^[6] are a key issue for Trump supporters. In the three years that Joe Biden has been president, apprehensions at the US southwestern border surged to record highs, with 2.2 million apprehensions in the 2022 fiscal year

LNP margin extended in Queensland on late counting

With 68% of enrolled voters now counted in Saturday’s Queensland election, The Poll Bludger’s results^[7] give the Liberal National Party (LNP) 44 of the 93 seats, Labor 27, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

Including undecided seats where one party leads, it’s 53 LNP, 34 Labor, four KAP, one Green and one independent. In Saturday night’s article^[8], the LNP led Labor by 49 seats to 38. Analyst Kevin Bonham expects the final result^[9] to be 52 LNP, 34 Labor, five KAP, one Green and one independent.

Vote shares have also moved to the LNP, as they now lead Labor by 54.1–45.9 on the estimated two-party vote, compared with 53.1–46.9 on Saturday night. Primary votes are 42.0% LNP, 32.7% Labor, 9.4% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.6% KAP and 5.5% for all Others.

On the statewide two-party vote, the most accurate poll taken in the last two weeks is currently a YouGov poll^[10] that gave the LNP a 54.5–45.5 lead. Resolve gave the LNP a 53–47 lead, Newspoll gave them a 52.5–47.5 lead and uComms was the worst, giving the LNP just a 51–49 lead.

Analyst Ben Raue wrote in The Guardian^[11] that Labor is trailing in 11 of its 14 regional seats while doing much better in south-east Queensland. Right-wing parties have been gaining in regional areas in Australia and internationally in the last ten years, while the left has gained in higher-education, urban areas.

In Australia Labor can win elections if it dominates big cities except in Queensland and Tasmania. I wrote about this in April 2022^[12] and May 2021^[13].

ACT election final result

The ACT uses the Hare-Clark proportional representation^[14] method with five five-member electorates, for a total of 25 seats. A quota is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%.

The final result^[15] of the October 19 election was ten Labor (steady since 2020), nine Liberals (steady), four Greens (down two) and two independents (up two). Labor retained office in coalition with the Greens; they have governed in the ACT since 2001.

ACT-wide vote shares were 34.1% Labor (down 3.7%), 33.5% Liberals (down 0.4%), 12.2% Greens (down 1.3%), 8.5% Independents for Canberra (new) and 11.7% for all Others (down 3.1%).

In Brindabella^[16], the Liberals had 2.59 quotas, Labor 2.03, the Greens 0.54 and Independents for Canberra 0.46.

It was initially thought that postals would help the Liberals win the last seat, but they didn’t do well enough on postals, and the Greens defeated the Liberals for the last seat by 166 votes or 0.02 quotas^[17]. Bonham followed^[18] this count.

Teal wins Pittwater by bigger than expected margin

New South Wales byelections in the Liberal-held seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater occurred on October 19. Labor didn’t contest any of these seats, and the Liberals retained Epping and Hornsby easily.

In Pittwater, The Poll Bludger’s election night forecast was a 54.1–45.9 win for teal independent Jacqui Scruby, but she actually won^[19] by 56.2–43.8, a 6.8% swing to Scruby since the 2023 state election. Primary votes were 54.5% Scruby (up 18.6%), 41.5% Liberals (down 3.2%) and 4.0% for a Libertarian (new). Labor and the Greens, who received a combined 17.0% in 2023, didn’t contest.

References

1. ^{^} Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
2. ^{^} since last Wednesday (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} would win the Electoral College (www.270towin.com)
4. ^{^} Josh Shapiro her running mate (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} FiveThirtyEight forecast (projects.fivethirtyeight.com)
6. ^{^} Saturday that worries about illegal immigration (www.natesilver.net)
7. ^{^} The Poll Bludger’s results (www.pollbludger.net)
8. ^{^} Saturday night’s article (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} Kevin Bonham expects the final result (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
10. ^{^} YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} Ben Raue wrote in The Guardian (www.theguardian.com)
12. ^{^} April 2022 (theconversation.com)
13. ^{^} May 2021 (theconversation.com)
14. ^{^} Hare-Clark proportional representation (theconversation.com)
15. ^{^} final result (www.abc.net.au)
16. ^{^} Brindabella (www.abc.net.au)
17. ^{^} quotas (www.elections.act.gov.au)
18. ^{^} Bonham followed (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
19. ^{^} actually won (www.abc.net.au)