Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall; Labor surging in poll of marginal seats
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
With less than two weeks to go now until the federal election, the polls continue to favour the government being returned.
Newspoll was steady at 52–48 to Labor, but primary vote changes indicated a gain for Labor as both leaders dropped on net approval. A Redbridge marginal seats poll had Labor gaining two points since the previous week for a 54.5–45.5 lead, a 3.5-point swing to Labor in those seats since the 2022 election.
A national Newspoll[1], conducted April 14–17 from a sample of 1,263, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged on the April 7–10 Newspoll[2]. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all Others (steady).
In the last two Newspolls, Labor has been a little lucky to get a 52–48 lead as this would have been given by 2022 election preference flows, and Newspoll is making a pro-Coalition adjustment to One Nation preferences. This time the 2022 election flow method would give Labor about a 53–47 lead.
This Newspoll is the only new national poll since Friday’s update[3]. The fieldwork dates were nearly the same as for the Freshwater poll that had Labor ahead by just 50.3–49.7 (April 14–16 for Freshwater). Other polls indicate that Freshwater is likely the outlier. Here’s the Labor two-party vote chart.
In-person early voting begins on Tuesday ahead of the May 3 election, so there isn’t much time for the Coalition to turn around their deficit, if the polls are accurate.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll was down five points to -9, with 52% dissatified and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down three points to -22, a record low for him. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 52–36 (49–38 previously). This is Albanese’s biggest lead since May 2024.
Here’s the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are data points and a smoothed line has been fitted.
Albanese and Labor were preferred to Dutton and the Coalition on helping with the cost of living by 31–28. Labor also led on dealing with uncertainty caused by Donald Trump (39–32), lowering taxes (33–26) and helping Australians buy their first home (29–24). The Coalition led on growing our economy by 34–29.
For so long, it had appeared that the cost of living issue would sink Labor at this election, so this result will please Labor.
Labor surges further ahead in Redbridge marginal seats poll
A poll of 20 marginal seats[4] by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids was conducted April 9–15 from a sample of 1,000. It gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the April 4–9 marginal seats poll. Primary votes were 35% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up two) and 17% for all Others (steady).
The overall 2022 vote in these 20 seats was 51–49 to Labor, so this poll implies a 3.5-point swing to Labor from the 2022 election. If applied to the national 2022 result of 52.1–47.9 to Labor, Labor would lead by about 55.5–44.5. Since the first wave of this marginal seats tracker in early February, Labor has gained 6.5 points.
Albanese’s net favourability improved three points since last week to -5, while Dutton’s slumped six points to -22. By 36–26, voters thought Albanese and Labor had better election promises for them than Dutton and the Coalition.
By 56–13, voters agreed with Labor’s attack line that Dutton’s nuclear plan will cost $600 billion, and he will need to make cuts to pay for it. By 42–16, voters agreed with the Coalition’s attack line that this is the highest spending government in the past 40 years.
Additional Resolve questions and a right-wing poll of Wentworth
I previously covered[5] the April 9–13 Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead. Asked their biggest concerns about voting Labor[6], 47% said cost of living (down five since February), 36% economic management (down nine), 31% lack of progress in their first term (steady), 27% union ties (up two) and 24% Albanese’s personality (down six).
Asked their biggest concerns about voting for the Coalition, 45% said Dutton’s personality (up ten), 36% lack of policy detail (up eight), 34% that the Coalition would follow Donald Trump’s example (up six), 32% the performance of the Scott Morrison government (up four) and 31% their nuclear power plan (up five).
The February Resolve poll was the 55–45 to Coalition outlier, so responses in the prior survey were probably too Coalition-friendly.
The Poll Bludger reported Saturday[7] that a seat poll of Wentworth[8], which teal Allegra Spender holds by a 55.9–44.1 margin over the Liberals after a redistribution, gave the Liberals a 47–28 primary vote lead over Spender with 15% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. This poll was taken by the right-wing pollster Compass.
Canadian election and UK local elections
I covered the April 28 Canadian election for The Poll Bludger[9] on Saturday. The centre-left governing Liberals are down slightly since my previous Poll Bludger Canadian article on April 10, but are still likely to win a parliamentary majority. Debates between four party leaders occurred Wednesday (in French) and Thursday (in English), and we’re still waiting for post-debate polls.
United Kingdom local elections and a parliamentary byelection will occur on May 1. Current national polls imply that the far-right Reform will gain massively, with the Conservatives and Labour both slumping. Two seat polls give Reform a narrow lead over Labour for the parliamentary byelection in a safe Labour seat.
References
- ^ Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
- ^ April 7–10 Newspoll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Friday’s update (theconversation.com)
- ^ 20 marginal seats (www.heraldsun.com.au)
- ^ previously covered (theconversation.com)
- ^ biggest concerns about voting Labor (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Poll Bludger reported Saturday (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Wentworth (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ Canadian election for The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
