Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

Labor also leads the Coalition by 53–47% in new polls from Redbridge and Spectre Strategy.

Respondent-allocated preference flows from various pollsters do not imply a big Coalition gain from the 2022 election preference flow method.

YouGov conducted a national MRP poll^[1] (multi-level modelling with post-stratification) from April 1–29 from an overall sample of 35,185 people. MRP polls are used to estimate the outcome in each House electorate using huge samples and modelling.

YouGov’s central forecast is Labor winning 84 of the 150 lower house seats, an 18-seat majority. The Coalition would win 47 seats, the Greens three, independents 14 and others two.

Since YouGov’s previous MRP poll^[2] that was taken from late February to late March, Labor is up nine seats, the Coalition down 13, the Greens up one and independents up three.

And compared to the first YouGov MRP poll conducted before mid-February, Labor is up 18 seats and the Coalition down 26.

The high forecast in the new MRP poll is 85 seats for Labor and 53 for the Coalition, while the low forecast is 76 for Labor (just enough for a majority) and 45 for the Coalition.

On national voting intentions, Labor led the Coalition by 52.9–47.1% in this MRP poll, a 2.7-point gain for Labor since the previous MRP poll. Primary votes were 31.4% Labor (up 1.6 points), 31.1% Coalition (down 4.4), 12.6% Greens (down 0.6), 9.3% One Nation (steady), 8.1% independents (down 0.2) and 7.6% others (up 3.7).

By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by 54.1–45.9%.

Labor won the 2022 election by 52.1–47.9% from primary votes of 35.7% Coalition, 32.6% Labor, 12.3% Greens, 5.0% One Nation, 4.1% United Australia Party, 5.3% independents and 5.1% others.

In this poll, the major parties combined are winning just 62.5% of the vote, down from 68.3% in 2022, which was already a record low^[3] for the combined major party vote.

Unless the Coalition surges in the final days before Saturday’s election or the polls are overstating support for Labor, Labor will win the election. The graph below includes the Redbridge poll, but not the Spectre Strategy one.

Labor takes 53–47% lead in Redbridge poll

The final national poll by Redbridge and Accent Research^[4] for the News Corp tabloids, conducted April 24–29 from a sample of 1,011 people, gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition by both respondent and 2022 election flows.

This is a one-point gain for Labor since the previous national Redbridge poll^[5] in early April.

Primary votes were 34% Labor (up one), 34% Coalition (down two), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all others (steady). One Nation’s preference flows to the Coalition had increased in this poll compared with 2022, but Labor’s flow increased from other sources.

On type of government desired, 24% wanted a majority Labor government, 12% a Labor minority government with the Greens and 10% a Labor minority government with the teals (comprising a total of 46% who wanted Labor to govern).

For the Coalition, 30% wanted a majority Coalition government, 2% a Coalition minority government with the Greens and 7% a Coalition minority government with the teals (a total of 39% who wanted a Coalition government).

New pollster Spectre Strategy gives Labor 53–47% lead

A national poll by new pollster Spectre Strategy^[6], conducted April 24–28 from a sample of 2,000 people, also gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences from primary votes of 34% Coalition, 31% Labor, 15% Greens, 10% One Nation and 11% for all others.

By 2022 election flows, this poll would give Labor about a 52.5–47.5% lead over the Coalition.

Women voters (71%) and men aged 18–34 (64%) both massively favoured Labor. Among voters aged 35–54, 61% of women supported Labor, compared to just 49% of men. Both men and women aged 55 and over favoured the Coalition by 58–42%.

Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 47–35%.

DemosAU polls of Melbourne and Sydney seats

DemosAU collectively polled^[7] the Labor-held seats of Dunkley, Bruce and Hawke in Melbourne from April 13–22 from a sample of 924 people. Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%. The party won the three seats by 56.5–43.5% in 2022.

Primary votes in the poll were 32% Labor, 31% Liberal, 13% Greens, 10% One Nation and 14% for all others.

DemosAU collectively polled^[8] the Labor-held seats of Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa in Sydney from April 13–27 from a sample of 905 people. Labor led the Coalition by 56–44%. The party won the three seats 54.7–45.3% in 2022.

Primary votes in the poll were 36% Labor, 28% Liberal, 10% Greens, 5% Libertarian, 4% One Nation, 11% independents and 6% others.

Preference flows

Phillip Coorey wrote in the Australian Financial Review^[9] Tuesday that JWS polling of some seats had right-wing party preferences flowing at 80 or 90% rates to the Coalition. If this is true, the Coalition would do better than expected from current polls.

But respondent preferences were used in the Redbridge poll above, giving the same result as the 2022 flow result. The Spectre respondent result was actually 0.5 of a point better for Labor than the previous election method.

The polls I covered on Tuesday^[10] from Resolve, Essential and Morgan used respondent preferences. The Coalition was up one point in the Morgan poll compared to the previous election method and up 0.5 of a point in the Essential poll. There was no difference between the two methods in Resolve.

JWS has given the Coalition very strong results in many of its seat polls. All other evidence suggests only a small gain for the Coalition from using respondent preferences as opposed to the 2022 election flows.

Inflation increased in March quarter

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the March quarter inflation report^[11] on Wednesday. Headline inflation increased 0.9% in the March quarter, up from 0.2% in both December and September. This was the highest quarterly inflation since June 2024. Annual inflation was steady at 2.4% from December.

Core inflation increased 0.7% in the March quarter, up from 0.5% in December^[12]. Annual core inflation dropped to 2.9% in March from 3.3% in December.

The same principles with poll analysis can be applied to economic data. We’re most interested in the current polls, not in averaging these polls with those from months ago. The quarterly inflation numbers should be emphasised, not the annual numbers that include data from the June 2024 quarter.

References

1. ^{^} national MRP poll (au.yougov.com)
2. ^{^} YouGov’s previous MRP poll (theconversation.com)
3. ^{^} already a record low (en.wikipedia.org)
4. ^{^} Redbridge and Accent Research (drive.google.com)
5. ^{^} national Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
6. ^{^} Spectre Strategy (www.pollbludger.net)
7. ^{^} collectively polled (demosau.com)
8. ^{^} collectively polled (demosau.com)
9. ^{^} wrote in the Australian Financial Review (www.afr.com)
10. ^{^} covered on Tuesday (theconversation.com)
11. ^{^} released the March quarter inflation report (www.abs.gov.au)
12. ^{^} from 0.5% in December (www.abs.gov.au)