Footy’s ‘code wars’ are back, but which is actually the No. 1 Australian sport: the NRL or AFL?
- Written by Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney
Every now and then, so-called “code wars[1]” erupt between the major Australia winter football codes: the National Rugby League (NRL) and the Australian Football League (AFL).
This animosity likely stems from a phenomenon known as “the Barassi Line”, a cultural and geographical divide based on football preference which runs from Eden, NSW, through Canberra and up to Arnhem Land.
Read more: The Barassi Line: a globally unique divider splitting Australia's footy fans[2]
Recently, NRL chair Peter V’Landys claimed victory over the AFL in a strongly worded salvo[3]:
Rugby league has reaffirmed its standing as the No. 1 sporting code in Australia and the Pacific after the Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC) announced record-breaking attendances, TV audiences, participation, revenue and assets.
But is he right to state the NRL as Australia’s No. 1 sport?
A uniquely Australian battle
The battleground in Australia is unique: most nations have only one major football code, soccer. Australia though has four – Australian rules football (AFL), rugby league (NRL), soccer and rugby union.
More competition is good for the consumer and, in this case, the consumer is the Aussie sports fan.
The way these fans watch, play and pour money into each sport is closely tracked by each league. And the competition for talent, fans, sponsors and eyeballs via TV, digital media and streaming grows every year.
Thanks to Australian sports media experts SportsIndustryAU[4], we can now make a direct comparison between the codes.
What the numbers say
It’s important to note the NRL’s recent chest-beating[5] refers to audiences in Australia and the Pacific, explaining the code’s push into Papua New Guinea (PNG) and potentially further expansion in New Zealand.
Read more: Sports diplomacy: why the Australian government is spending $600 million on a new NRL team in PNG[6]
In terms of revenue, the AFL earned 39% more than the NRL in 2024: $1.04 billion compared to the NRL’s $744.8 million.
In terms of profit, the NRL’s was 51% higher than the AFL in 2024. This was in large part due to the NRL having only half the operational expenses of the AFL.
However, if we look at operating profit (gross profit minus operating expenses), the AFL was 13% higher than the NRL before it made its annual distributions to clubs[7]. The AFL distributes its profits among its 18 clubs, with smaller clubs receiving more than the more powerful teams.
In terms of net assets (the value of an organisation’s assets minus its liabilities[8]), the AFL is also richer: it has net assets of $482.3 million compared to $322.4 million for the NRL. The AFL owns Marvel Stadium[9] and a share in the sports data and analytics company Champion Data[10]. By comparison, the NRL has shares in many hotels[11].
In terms of TV audience, the NRL was 10% larger in terms of average aggregated audiences for free-to-air and paid subscription services in 2024: 153.7 million to the AFL’s 140.3 million. However, AFL matches go longer and the season features more games than the NRL. Also, these figures do not include streaming numbers, which will be part of future broadcast deals.
In terms of attendance and membership, the AFL is a clear winner.
The AFL welcomed 8.4 million fans through the gate in 2024, compared to 4.3 million for the NRL.
For membership, the AFL’s clubs boasted 1.32 million collectively in 2024. In the NRL, there are slightly more than 400,000 club members (based on club data – the NRL does not release membership data).
In terms of participation, Ausplay[12] – a national tracking survey led by the Australian Sports Commission – estimates 641,390 Aussie rules players, compared to 531,323 for rugby league (which includes touch football and Oztag).
No clear-cut answer
While more of the numbers point to an AFL advantage, this heavyweight battle will never be completely settled, and both codes’ future expansion plans will further muddy the waters.
The NRL has just announced the Perth Bears[13] will join in 2027 or 2028. This team revives the old North Sydney Bears[14] with a new Western Australia base. This will bring the number of NRL clubs to 19.
A possible 20th team is slated for New Zealand[15], or Ipswich[16] in the western Brisbane corridor.
Similarly, the AFL is expanding, first to Tasmania[17], which is set to become its 19th club in 2028.
Beyond that, it’s possible the league will look to the Northern Territory, Canberra or another team in Western Australia or South Australia to join as the 20th team[18].
One key advantage for the NRL is its international appeal.
For two years, it has hosted games in Las Vegas[19]. And after the NRL’s successful Magic Round in Brisbane[20], CEO Andrew Abdo floated the possibility of taking the event overseas, with Hong Kong and Dubai reportedly expressing interest.
Of course, as a domestic game, Australian rules football cannot logically expand beyond our shores.
But whether beyond our boundaries or within, the NRL vs AFL rivalry will continue, and an unequivocal winner will never really be settled on.
References
- ^ code wars (www.theguardian.com)
- ^ The Barassi Line: a globally unique divider splitting Australia's footy fans (theconversation.com)
- ^ strongly worded salvo (www.nrl.com)
- ^ SportsIndustryAU (footyindustry.com)
- ^ NRL’s recent chest-beating (www.foxsports.com.au)
- ^ Sports diplomacy: why the Australian government is spending $600 million on a new NRL team in PNG (theconversation.com)
- ^ annual distributions to clubs (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ value of an organisation’s assets minus its liabilities (www.experian.co.uk)
- ^ owns Marvel Stadium (www.afl.com.au)
- ^ Champion Data (www.championdata.com)
- ^ shares in many hotels (www.afr.com)
- ^ Ausplay (www.clearinghouseforsport.gov.au)
- ^ the Perth Bears (www.zerotackle.com)
- ^ revives the old North Sydney Bears (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ New Zealand (www.ausleisure.com.au)
- ^ Ipswich (www.espn.com.au)
- ^ first to Tasmania (www.afl.com.au)
- ^ join as the 20th team (theconversation.com)
- ^ hosted games in Las Vegas (www.nrl.com)
- ^ Magic Round in Brisbane (www.theguardian.com)
Authors: Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney
