Trump’s approval ratings slide, with Americans angry over inflation and Jimmy Kimmel

US President Donald Trump’s net approval in analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate^[1] of US national polls slid two points in the last week to -9.4, after his ratings had been stable since late July. Currently, 53.1% disapprove of his performance, compared to 43.7% who approve.

Trump’s net approval was worse last Wednesday at -10.0 before recovering. This is only slightly better than his worst net approval of this term, -10.3 on July 22.

In Silver’s historic approval data, Trump’s ratings are worse than any other president after Harry Truman – they only top his own ratings at this stage of his first term.

Trump’s ratings may have slid over his administration’s controversial attempts to cancel the late-night television host Jimmy Kimmel. Analyst G. Elliott Morris cited a YouGov poll^[2] this week in which 68% of Americans said it was unacceptable for the government to pressure broadcasters to remove shows it disagrees with, compared to just 12% who said it was acceptable.

An alternative explanation for the slide in Trump’s ratings is inflation. Silver tracks Trump’s ratings on four issues: immigration, the economy, trade and inflation. Trump’s net approval on immigration (-5.3), the economy (-15.6) and trade (-17.3) have held up in the last month, but his net approval on inflation (-30.0) has dropped six points since the end of August.

The benchmark US S&P 500 stock index^[3] peaked last Monday at nearly 6,700 points, an increase of 2.8% in the last month.

I believe Trump’s ratings are unlikely to become very poor unless something goes badly wrong with either the stock market or the broader US economy.

US and UK elections and polls

Last Tuesday, Democrats held^[4] Arizona’s seventh House district in a US special election, with a substantial swing in their favour.

Other US state and local elections will happen on November 4, covered here in The Poll Bludger^[5].

There will also be a deputy Labour leadership election in the United Kingdom in late October. The far-right Reform party is leading Labour by about ten points in national polls and would probably win a majority in the House of Commons on current voting intentions, given the UK’s first-past-the-post system.

Victorian polls are contradictory

A Victorian state Redbridge poll^[6] for The Herald Sun, conducted September 3–11 from a sample of 2,005 voters, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since July.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one point), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 18% for all others (up three). The next Victorian election is in November 2026.

A Victorian state DemosAU poll^[7], conducted September 2–9 from a sample of 1,327 voters, however, gave the Coalition a 51–49% lead. Primary votes were 38% Coalition, 26% Labor, 15% Greens and 21% for all others.

Liberal Brad Battin led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan by 37–32% as preferred premier. Respondents thought Victoria was headed in the wrong direction by a wide margine, 58–25%. A quarter of respondents thought crime was the most important issue, while 24% said cost of living was.

Federal Labor led the Coalition in Victoria by a 55–45% margin. Primary votes were 32% Labor, 29% Coalition, 13% Greens, 12% One Nation and 14% for all others. One Nation’s vote in this poll is six points above its 2025 election result.

NSW Resolve poll has big Labor lead

A NSW state Resolve poll^[8] for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000 voters, gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (steady since July), the Coalition 28% (down four), the Greens 10% (down three), independents 11% (up three) and others 12% (up two).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but The Poll Bludger estimated^[9] a Labor lead by 59–41%. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led Liberal Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 37–16% (compared to 35–16% in July).

This poll was released shortly after Labor gained the seat of Kiama that had been held by convicted sex offender Gareth Ward^[10] at a September 13 byelection.

Labor’s Katelin McInerney defeated the Liberals’ Serena Copley^[11] at the byelection by a 60.2–39.8% margin. (Ward had beaten^[12] McInerney by 50.8–49.2% as an independent at the March 2023 election).

The next NSW election is in March 2027.

Labor holds large lead in federal Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll^[13], conducted August 25 to September 21 from a sample of 5,084 voters, gave Labor a 55.5–44.5% lead by headline respondent preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the August Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 34% Labor (steady), 30% Coalition (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 9.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 14.5% for all others (down 0.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by an unchanged 55.5–44.5%.

The Coalition has taken the lead in Queensland, leading by 51.5–48.5%, but Labor is well ahead in all other states. Queensland was the only state the Coalition won^[14] at the 2025 federal election (by 50.6–49.4%).

Labor had a commanding 69–31% lead among those aged 18–34, a 59–41% lead with those aged 35–49 and a 50.5–49.5% lead with those aged 50–64. The Coalition had a 56–44% lead with those aged 65 and older.

Newspoll aggregate data for July to September

On September 21, the Australian released aggregate data^[15] for the three Newspolls taken from July 14 to September 11. The overall sample size was 3,811 people, and Labor led by 57–43% across all three polls.

The Poll Bludger reported that Labor^[16] led by 60–40% in New South Wales, 58–42% in Victoria, 51–49% in Queensland, 54–46% in Western Australia and 55–45% in South Australia. Morgan had Labor ahead by 56.5–43.5% in NSW, with the election result there at 55.3–44.7% to Labor.

Labor led with university-educated people^[17] by a 60–40% margin. Labor also led by 57–43% among those with a TAFE/technical education, but only by 53–47% among those with no tertiary education.

Additional federal Resolve questions

I covered the national Resolve poll^[18] for Nine newspapers that gave Labor a 55–45% lead over the Coalition.

In additional questions, 52% of respondents thought it was important^[19] for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to meet Trump, although 58% had a negative view of Trump.

By 58–18%, voters also supported or accepted the adoption of nuclear-powered submarines by Australia (compared to 57–20% in November 2021).

There was a 29–29% tie on whether Australia should recognise Palestine as a state this month. On the Israel-Gaza war, 39% wanted an immediate end without preconditions, 22% only supported ending the war if Hamas is removed from power and 13% only when the remaining hostages are returned to Israel.

Liberals abandon Bradfield legal challenge

Last Thursday, the Liberals abandoned their legal challenge^[20] to teal Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote win in Bradfield^[21] at the May federal election.

The electoral commission had declared Boele the winner in June and she was seated pending the outcome of legal challenges. She will now serve a full term as the member for Bradfield.

References

1. ^{^} analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
2. ^{^} cited a YouGov poll (www.gelliottmorris.com)
3. ^{^} US S&P 500 stock index (www.google.com)
4. ^{^} held (www.pollbludger.net)
5. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
6. ^{^} Victorian state Redbridge poll (www.heraldsun.com.au)
7. ^{^} Victorian state DemosAU poll (demosau.com)
8. ^{^} NSW state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
9. ^{^} The Poll Bludger estimated (www.pollbludger.net)
10. ^{^} convicted sex offender Gareth Ward (www.abc.net.au)
11. ^{^} Labor’s Katelin McInerney defeated the Liberals’ Serena Copley (results.elections.nsw.gov.au)
12. ^{^} had beaten (www.pollbludger.net)
13. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
14. ^{^} the only state the Coalition won (results.aec.gov.au)
15. ^{^} released aggregate data (www.theaustralian.com.au)
16. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported that Labor (www.pollbludger.net)
17. ^{^} university-educated people (www.pollbludger.net)
18. ^{^} national Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
19. ^{^} thought it was important (www.theage.com.au)
20. ^{^} Liberals abandoned their legal challenge (www.abc.net.au)
21. ^{^} 26-vote win in Bradfield (results.aec.gov.au)