Polls show federal Labor losing support; One Nation looking strong in Farrer seat poll
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
It’s over two weeks since the United States and Israel began their war on Iran. In the federal Resolve and Morgan polls, Labor has lost support to the Greens and Others, although YouGov has Labor’s vote up one point. Left-wing voters would like Anthony Albanese to oppose the war.
One Nation is ahead of the Coalition in all three polls, and it appears the switch in Liberal leadership from Sussan Ley to Angus Taylor has had no lasting impact. Last Wednesday Matt Canavan was elected Nationals leader[1] in a party room spill after former leader David Littleproud resigned the previous day.
The total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was 45–46% in these polls, and it appears to have stalled at this level. Labor would win an election comfortably on current polls, against either the Coalition or One Nation.
In the US, Donald Trump’s net approval has scarcely changed since the beginning of the Iran war, but he is now the most unpopular president at this point in presidential terms.
A national Resolve poll[2] for Nine newspapers, conducted March 9–14 from a sample of 1,803, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down three since the February Resolve poll[3]), One Nation 24% (up one), the Coalition 22% (down one), the Greens 12% (up one), independents 8% (up one) and others 5% (steady).
No two-party estimate was provided. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by above 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Albanese’s net approval was up three points to -17 (52% poor, 36% good). Taylor’s initial net approval in this poll was +9 (35% good, 27% poor). Ley had been at -23 in her final Resolve poll as Liberal leader. Albanese led as preferred PM by 35–31 (38–22 against Ley).
On issues, 43% said cost of living was their top priority, with no other issue in the double digits. In February, 10% had said immigration was their top issue. The Liberals led Labor by 28–24 on keeping the cost of living low (24–23 in February). The Liberals led Labor on economic management by 30–28 after it was previously tied at 26–26.
On the national outlook[4], 51% thought it would get worse in the next year (up nine since July 2025), 20% get better (down five) and 30% stay the same (down three).
YouGov poll: Coalition falls back to record low
A national YouGov poll[5] for Sky News, conducted March 3–10 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since the February 17–24 YouGov poll[6]), One Nation 26% (up two), the Coalition 19% (down three), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 5% (down one) and others 7% (up one).
The Coalition’s 19% matched the record low in this poll they recorded in early February before Taylor replaced Ley as Liberal leader. By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by 55–45, a one-point gain for One Nation vs Labor and a two-point gain for Labor vs the Coalition.
Albanese’s net approval was down two points to -16, with 54% dissatisfied and 38% satisfied. Taylor’s net approval was up one point to -4 (38% dissatisfied, 34% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 45–33 (45–34 previously).
On the Iran war, 33% said they were most concerned about increased fuel prices and inflation, 32% major destabilisation in the region and 21% terror attacks in Australia.
By 53–16, respondents thought Jim Chalmers’ handling of cost of living was poor, with 31% neither good nor poor. By 42–8, they said their household finances had become worse[7] rather than better in the past three months.
Morgan poll: Labor down and Greens up
A national Morgan poll[8], conducted March 2–8 from a sample of 1,532, gave Labor 26.5% of the primary vote (down four since the late February Morgan poll), One Nation 23.5% (up 1.5), the Coalition 22.5% (down one), the Greens 14.5% (up three) and all Others 13% (up 0.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was reported.
Farrer byelection poll has One Nation winning
The byelection for Ley’s former seat of Farrer will occur on May 9. A uComms poll[9] for the left-wing Australia Institute, conducted March 5–6 from a sample of 1,281, gave One Nation 28.7% of the primary vote, independent Michelle Milthorpe 23.3%, the Liberals 19.1%, Labor 9.0%, the Nationals 5.2%, the Greens 3.9%, others 2.2% and 8.6% were undecided.
There were follow-up questions about who Labor voters would support if they didn’t run and who undecided voters had a leaning towards. Using these questions, analyst Kevin Bonham gets primary votes[10] of One Nation 31.4%, Milthorpe 29.4%, Liberal 21.7%, National 7.4%, Green 5.4% and others 2.7%.
Greens preferences would flow strongly to Milthorpe, but Liberal and National preferences would go to One Nation. On these primary votes, One Nation would win Farrer. Seat polls are unreliable.
US: Trump’s ratings and a special election
In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls[11], Trump’s net approval is -13.8, with 54.7% disapproving and 40.9% approving. His net approval has scarcely changed since the start of the Iran war. Trump’s lowest net approval in this aggregate was -15.0 on both February 15 and November 23.
Compared with past presidents since Harry Truman at this point in their terms, Trump’s net approval is now the lowest - it has even edged below his net approval at this point in his first term.
The benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index[12] is down 4.5% since February 25. If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, stockmarkets are very likely to fall further. However, the S&P has increased 33% since April 8, 2025, when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs caused a stock market rout.
If Trump is to become much more unpopular, it’s likely that stock markets will need to fall far more than they have so far.
A federal special election occurred for Georgia’s 14th last Tuesday. In a “jungle primary”, no candidate won a majority, with a Republican and a Democrat advancing to the April 7 runoff. I covered this for The Poll Bludger[13].
At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in this seat by 68.2–31.3. There was over an eight-point swing to Democrats from Harris’ vote share, but the Republican should easily win the runoff.
References
- ^ elected Nationals leader (www.abc.net.au)
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ February Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ national outlook (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ YouGov poll (www.skynews.com.au)
- ^ February 17–24 YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ household finances had become worse (www.skynews.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ uComms poll (australiainstitute.org.au)
- ^ analyst Kevin Bonham gets primary votes (kevinbonham.blogspot.com)
- ^ Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ US S&P 500 stock market index (www.google.com)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
