Labor’s slide continues in federal polls, as special DemosAU poll has Coalition winning just nine seats

Labor is still ahead, but the latest federal polls suggest a move against them. A DemosAU MRP poll has One Nation winning 52 of the 150 House seats and the Coalition just nine. A Victorian poll has the Coalition gaining a 52–48 lead over Labor.

At the South Australian election, One Nation won 22.2% of the statewide primary vote^[1], beating the Liberals (19.1%). This shows we should take polls with One Nation doing well seriously. They won’t necessarily fade before an election or underperform their polls.

Morgan’s consumer confidence^[2] has fallen steeply in the last four weeks to a record low of 63.1, worse than during the COVID pandemic. I believe this slump explains why Labor is not polling well.

YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll^[3] for Sky News, conducted March 17–24 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since the early March YouGov poll^[4]), One Nation 27% (up one), the Coalition 19% (steady), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 6% (up one) and others 6% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a two-point gain for One Nation. This is the closest Labor lead over One Nation in this poll. Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Essential poll

A national Essential poll^[5], conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,008, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (up one since the late February Essential poll), the Coalition 24% (down two), One Nation 24% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), all Others 5% (down two) and undecided 7% (up three).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 47–46 including undecided (48–47 previously). If using 2025 election flows, Labor would lead by nearly 52–48. Essential’s polls have weak respondent flows to Labor and low votes for Others.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to -12, with 51% disapproving and 39% approving. Angus Taylor’s initial net approval was -17 (47% disapprove, 30% approve), compared with Sussan Ley’s -9 in December.

By 42–26, respondents disapproved^[7] of the US and Israel’s decision to initiate strikes on Iran. By 34–26, they approved of Australia’s response to Iran.

China and the US were the two countries respondents thought Australia should become less close to, rather than get closer to. By 65–35, respondents thought Australia should prioritise strengthening its relationship with other middle powers over maintaining its relationship with the US.

Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll^[8], conducted March 16–22 from a sample of 1,664, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (down 1.5 since the March 9–15 Morgan poll), the Coalition 25.5% (up 1.5), One Nation 23.5% (up one), the Greens 13.5% (up one) and all Others 10.5% (down two).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 51–49, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

DemosAU MRP poll has Coalition winning just 9 lower house seats

MRP polls use modelling and large sample sizes to estimate the results in all 150 House of Representatives seats. A DemosAU MRP poll^[9] was conducted with a long fieldwork period (January 13 to March 3) from a sample of 8,424.

Point seat estimates gave Labor 83 seats (down 11 since the May 2025 election and down 15 since the October to November DemosAU MRP poll^[10]), One Nation 52 (up 52 since the election and up 40 since the last poll), the Coalition nine (down 34 and down 20), the Greens one (steady and up one) and all Others five (down seven and down six).

National primary votes in this poll were 29% Labor (down four since the last MRP poll), 27% One Nation (up ten), 21% Coalition (down three), 12% Greens (down one) and 11% for all Others (down two). The long fieldwork period means this should not be taken as an indication of recent poll trends.

Single-member systems can be brutal. If the Coalition finished third on primary votes, they would win few seats with One Nation winning the safe rural and regional conservative seats. While Labor’s 83 seats is well down from both the last election and the last poll, it’s still more than the 76 needed for a majority.

This poll is an estimate of what would have happened had an election been held between January and February. The next election is over two years away.

Resolve questions on the Iran war

I previously covered^[11] the mid-March national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In additional questions^[12], by 39–28 respondents opposed the US and Israel’s attack on Iran. By 61–13, they supported Australia staying out of the situation entirely.

By 47–9, respondents supported regime change in Iran. By 48–24, they opposed Australia offering military support to the US. By 85–9, they were concerned about the impact of the Iran war on the cost of living in Australia.

Victorian Freshwater poll: Coalition gains to take lead

The Victorian state election is in late November. A Freshwater poll^[13] for The Herald Sun, conducted March 19–23 from a sample of 1,060, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up three since the February Freshwater poll^[14]), Labor 27% (down one), One Nation 20% (down three), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 9% (steady).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. But if Labor replaced Jacinta Allan as premier, this poll suggests a 50–50 tie.

Allan’s net favourability was steady at -33 (55% unfavourable, 22% favourable), while Liberal leader Jess Wilson was up four points to net +18 (32% favourable, 14% unfavourable). Wilson led Allan as better premier by 47–31 (46–30 previously). By 54–33, respondents thought it was time to give Wilson a chance rather than saying Allan had done enough to deserve re-election.

The Victorian Liberals were at +3 net favourability, One Nation at net zero, Victorian Labor and the Victorian Greens were both at -12.

Further SA results

The Poll Bludger’s SA lower house count^[15] has Labor winning 33 of the 47 seats, the Liberals four, One Nation two and independents three, with five undecided. Assigning undecided seats to the most likely winners gives Labor 34, the Liberals five, One Nation four and independents four.

Labor has held the seat of Light against a One Nation challenge and an independent has gained Finniss from the Liberals.

Eleven of the 22 upper house seats are elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota for election is one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%.

With 54% of enrolled voters counted for the upper house, Labor has 4.46 quotas, One Nation 2.86, the Liberals 2.09, the Greens 1.28 and Legalise Cannabis 0.30. Labor will probably win the final seat, with Labor and the Greens holding a 12–10 combined majority^[16].

NSW Resolve poll additional questions

On Friday I covered^[17] a New South Wales Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald. In further questions^[18], by 54–18 respondents thought Premier Chris Minns had handled protests over the visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog well rather than poorly. By 49–18, they supported the Sydney-Newcastle fast train project going ahead.

References

1. ^{^} primary vote (www.abc.net.au)
2. ^{^} consumer confidence (www.roymorgan.com)
3. ^{^} YouGov poll (www.skynews.com.au)
4. ^{^} early March YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
6. ^{^} Mick Tsikas/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)
7. ^{^} respondents disapproved (essentialreport.com.au)
8. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
9. ^{^} DemosAU MRP poll (demosau.com)
10. ^{^} October to November DemosAU MRP poll (demosau.com)
11. ^{^} previously covered (theconversation.com)
12. ^{^} additional questions (www.theage.com.au)
13. ^{^} Freshwater poll (www.heraldsun.com.au)
14. ^{^} February Freshwater poll (theconversation.com)
15. ^{^} Poll Bludger’s SA lower house count (pollbludger.net)
16. ^{^} combined majority (theconversation.com)
17. ^{^} Friday I covered (theconversation.com)
18. ^{^} further questions (www.theage.com.au)