Trump’s US ratings are near a record low after dropping further last week
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
US President Donald Trump’s net approval is near a record low after a further dip, despite a surging US stock market. In Australia, there are federal Essential and Morgan polls and a Queensland Resolve poll.
In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate[1] of US national polls, Trump’s net approval has dropped 1.3 points since my April 9 article[2] to -18.2, with 57.5% disapproving and 39.2% approving.
Trump’s net approval is only slightly above his -18.8 net approval on April 22. It’s below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump during his first term the closest at -12.1.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -9.2 on immigration, -26.3 on the economy, -19.7 on trade and -41.5 on inflation. Since mid-March, Trump’s net approval on the economy and inflation have both slumped, while his ratings on trade and immigration have been relatively stable.
Despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index[3] has surged 12.5% in the past month, hitting a new record high in Monday’s session, 3.3% above the level it was at in the week before the Iran war began.
While consumers have been hurt by high fuel prices, the stock market has surged owing to the AI boom.
Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war[4]. Net support has dropped 0.8 points since April 9 to -15.9, with 54.8% opposed to the Iran war while 39.0% support it.
At November midterm elections, all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot[5] polls, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 48.2–42.6, a 5.6-point margin. There has been very little change since January.
In my April 9 article, I said this Democratic margin would be enough for them to gain control of the House, but not the Senate. On a uniform swing, Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate.
Welsh and Scottish elections on May 7
I wrote on Monday for The Poll Bludger[6] about the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections. In Wales, Labour’s dominance is set to end, with the nationalist Plaid Cymru and populist right Reform likely to be the top two parties. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party is likely to retain government with the Greens’ support.
Over 5,000 English councillors are also up for election on May 7. Reform and the Greens are set to make massive gains from Labour and the Conservatives.
In the US, Virginia passed an April 21 referendum[7] by 51.7–48.3 that will allow a 10–1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats.
Australian Essential poll
An Australian federal Essential poll[8], conducted April 22–26 from a sample of 1,002, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down one since the late March Essential poll), One Nation 25% (up one), the Coalition 24% (steady), the Greens 11% (up one), all Others 5% (steady) and undecided 5% (down two).
By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 49–47 (47–46 previously). Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes in this poll would give Labor above a 51–49 lead. A low Others vote and weak respondent preference flows to Labor are features of Essential’s polls.
Essential’s last three polls have been the only ones since the 2025 election to have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences. All other pollsters have had Labor ahead.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved[9] two points to -10, with 51% disapproving and 41% approving. Angus Taylor’s net approval was down two points to net zero (34% both approving and disapproving). Pauline Hanson debuted at +18 net approval (52% approve, 34% disapprove).
On who was blamed most for the fuel crisis, 42% blamed the US and Israel for initiating the Iran war, 32% the Australian government for not planning ahead and 17% Iran for closing the Strait of Hormuz.
On the economic outlook in the next six months, 55% (up 20 since August 2025) said it will get worse, 31% (down 12) stay the same and 14% (down eight) improve.
Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions
A national Morgan poll[10], conducted April 20–26 from a sample of 1,587, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the April 13–19 Morgan poll), the Coalition 22.5% (down 0.5), One Nation 22.5% (up one), the Greens 14% (up 0.5) and all Others 11% (down 0.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.
I previously covered the mid-April federal Resolve poll[11] for Nine newspapers. In additional questions, just 15% believed Australia would avoid a recession[12] in the next year, 12% thought we are already in a recession and 52% thought we would have a recession within the next year.
Respondents overstated the amount of money spent on various priorities in the federal budget. They particularly overstated the amount spent on foreign aid ($59 billion average estimate vs $4.5 billion actual).
Queensland Resolve poll
A Queensland state Resolve poll[13] for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal March and April Resolve polls from a sample of 870, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 30% (down four since February), Labor 28% (up two), One Nation 17% (up one), the Greens 11% (up one), independents 10% (up one) and others 6% (up one).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls. Applying preference flows from the 2025 federal election would give about a 50–50 tie between the LNP and Labor.
LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was down two points to +19. Labor leader Steven Miles’ net likeability was down two points to -5. Crisafulli led as preferred premier by 42–26 (44–23 previosuly).
A Queensland byelection for the Labor-held Stafford[14] will occur on May 16. Former MP Jimmy Sullivan won Stafford for Labor at the October 2024 election by a 55.3–44.7 margin over the LNP. Sullivan was expelled from Labor over domestic violence issues in May 2025 and was found dead on April 9.
Labor, the LNP and the Greens (who won 18.1% in 2024) are contesting the byelection, but One Nation is not contesting.
The Poll Bludger covered[15] a Queensland state draft redistribution on March 10. Katter’s Australian Party lost one of its three seats to the LNP at a byelection in November 2025, and would lose another in the redistribution. Labor was adversely affected.
References
- ^ Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ April 9 article (theconversation.com)
- ^ US S&P 500 stock market index (www.google.com)
- ^ US support for the Iran war (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ aggregate of the generic ballot (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ April 21 referendum (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ net approval improved (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ covered the mid-April federal Resolve poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ believed Australia would avoid a recession (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Queensland state Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Labor-held Stafford (pollbludger.net)
- ^ Poll Bludger covered (www.pollbludger.net)
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
