One Nation wins Farrer byelection as Liberal vote crashes

One Nation has won the Farrer federal byelection – the first time the party has won an election for a federal House of Representatives seat. At the same time, the Liberal vote has crashed, with independent Michelle Milthorpe running second on Saturday night.

The byelection in the regional New South Wales seat was triggered by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s resignation. At the 2025 general election^[1], Ley had defeated independent Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer by 56.2–43.8.

With 41% of enrolled voters counted for the byelection, The Poll Bludger’s results system^[2] is projecting that One Nation’s David Farley will defeat Milthorpe by 58.0–42.0 when all votes are counted.

Current primary votes are 42.3% Farley (up 35.1% on One Nation’s 2025 vote), 25.6% Milthorpe (up 7.0%), 11.2% Liberals (down 32.2%) 9.7% Nationals (new), 2.7% Legalisse Cannabis (new), 2.4% Greens (down 2.8%) and 2.0% Shooters (down 1.7%). Labor didn’t contest after winning 15.1% in 2025.

Projections for final primary votes are 41.7% Farley, 27.0% Milthorpe, 11.3% Liberals and 9.9% Nationals. The majority of preferences come from the Liberals and Nationals to One Nation, and Milthorpe’s preference share of 48.0% is higher than I expected given the unfavourable sources. But One Nation’s large lead on primary votes will give them an easy win after preferences.

National polls have recently had One Nation in second place on primary votes behind Labor and ahead of the Coalition. If these polls are accurate, One Nation should be winning seats like Farrer, which is rural and strongly conservative.

YouGov poll: Labor rebounds from slump in prior poll

A national YouGov poll^[3] for Sky News, conducted April 28 to May 5 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up three since the April 14–21 YouGov poll^[4]), One Nation 24% (down three), the Coalition 21% (up one), the Greens 14% (steady), independents 5% (steady) and others 6% (down one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led One Nation by a blowout 57–43, a five-point gain for Labor.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up five points to -14, with 54% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Angus Taylor’s net approval was up one point to -4 (42% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 45–36 (44–39 previously). He led Pauline Hanson by 54–35 (50–39).

Asked about their personal financial situation in the past three months, 47% of those polled said it was worse, 43% no change and just 7% better. On what Labor should prioritise in Tuesday’s budget, 36% selected budget savings, 33% energy subsidies or a fuel excise cut, 20% more social services and welfare and 11% income tax cuts.

Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll^[5], conducted April 27 to May 3 from a sample of 1,681, gave Labor 29.5% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the April 20–26 Morgan poll), the Coalition 24% (up 1.5), One Nation 21.5% (down one), the Greens 13% (down one) and all Others 12% (up one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 54.5–45.5. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

UK Labour’s dismal performance at Welsh, Scottish and English local elections

On Thursday, Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections occurred, which I covered for The Poll Bludger^[6]. Labour has dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999, but won just nine of 96 seats, with the left-wing nationalist Plaid Cymru taking 43 seats and the populist right Reform 34.

In Scotland, the left-wing nationalist SNP (58 of 129 seats) and the Greens (15 seats) combined retained a clear majority, with Labour tied for second with Reform on 17 seats.

In England, Labour has lost over 1,400 council seats^[7], while Reform won over 1,400. The BBC’s Projected National Share that estimates a national vote share from council elections had Reform on 26%, the Greens 18%, Labour 17%, the Conservatives 17% and the Liberal Democrats 16%.

Updates on Tasmanian upper house elections

I covered the May 2 Tasmanian upper house elections for Huon and Rosevears last Monday^[8]. After postals were counted Thursday, a full distribution of preferences in Huon^[9] resulted in left-wing independent Clare Glade-Wright defeating conservative independent incumbent Dean Harriss by 52.5–47.5.

Primary votes were 30.8% Harriss, 27.5% Glade-Wright, 16.7% Labor, 15.0% Greens and 10.0% combined for two other independents.

In Rosevears^[10], the electoral commission will wait until the final postal votes are received on Tuesday before commencing the distribution of preferences owing to a close margin between the bottom two candidates that could be affected by late postals. The Liberals are almost certain to retain.

Final SA upper house results

At the March 21 South Australian election, eleven of the 22 upper house seats were elected using statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota for election was one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%. Upper house members have eight-year terms with half elected every four years.

ABC election analyst Antony Green^[11] has analysis of the upper house result. Final primary votes gave Labor 4.41 quotas, One Nation 2.93, the Liberals 2.13, the Greens 1.22, Legalise Cannabis 0.28 and Family First 0.26.

The electronic distribution of preferences was finally conducted last Monday. As expected, Labor won five of the 11 seats (up one since 2018, the last time these seats were up), One Nation three (up three), the Liberals two (down two) and the Greens one (steady). SA-Best lost its two seats.

In the distribution of preferences, One Nation’s third candidate made a full quota, while Labor’s fifth was elected with 0.57 quotas. The Greens’ second surpassed both Legalise Cannabis and Family First, to be runner-up with 0.46 quotas.

Preferences beyond a “1” for an above the line group are entirely optional in the SA upper house. With the final seat decided between Labor and the Greens, right-wing voters were likely to exhaust their preferences.

In 2022, Labor won five seats, the Liberals four, the Greens one and One Nation one. One Nation’s winner at that election, Sarah Game, has defected. The upper house total is ten Labor out of 22, six Liberals, three One Nation, two Greens and Game. Labor and the Greens combined have 12 seats, a majority.

References

1. ^{^} 2025 general election (pollbludger.net)
2. ^{^} Poll Bludger’s results system (pollbludger.net)
3. ^{^} YouGov poll (www.skynews.com.au)
4. ^{^} April 14–21 YouGov poll (theconversation.com)
5. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
6. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
7. ^{^} council seats (www.bbc.com)
8. ^{^} last Monday (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} distribution of preferences in Huon (www.tec.tas.gov.au)
10. ^{^} Rosevears (app4.vision6.com.au)
11. ^{^} analyst Antony Green (antonygreen.com.au)