Democrats likely to gain control of Congress in US midterm elections as Senate lead expands
- Written by: Weekend Times
The Democrats have an 82% chance of gaining control of the Senate in the US midterm elections this week, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in
US analyst Nate Silver’s forecast model. In the last week, there has been clear movement to Democrats in the Senate.
We should know by Wednesday afternoon Australian Eastern Daylight Time if the Democrats have wrested control of Congress from the Republicans – but it’s far from clear exactly how things will play out.
Democrats lead Republicans by 9.4 points on the generic ballot, and President Donald Trump’s net approval is -20.4, but it has rebounded from lows below -24. If Republicans do better than expected in the polls, a drop in petrol prices since late September is likely to be responsible. However, the stock market has tanked in the last two trading sessions.
But with Democrats holding only modest leads in the polling in many Senate contests, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes – from a narrow Republican majority to a big Democratic majority.
Trump’s ratings
In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -20.4. Currently, 58.8% of Americans disapprove of his performance and 38.4% approve. Trump’s net approval had fallen to a new low of -24.3 on October 21 before rising. It’s now at its highest since mid-September.
Trump’s net approval was -23.3 in my October 26 article. It’s below any past president since Harry Truman at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -11.2.
On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -12.1 on immigration, -27.0 on trade, -28.6 on the economy and -44.2 on inflation.
Since my October 26 analysis, Trump’s net approval on all issues has improved one to four points, with his net approval on inflation up five points in the last two weeks.
Trump’s ratings are worse if his approval is sorted into strong and weak approval and disapproval. Currently, 48.6% of Americans strongly disapprove of his performance, 20.5% strongly approve, 18.0% weakly approve and 10.2% weakly disapprove. That gives him a net strong approval of -28.2.
People who strongly approve or disapprove of Trump will be more motivated to vote at the midterms.
Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Currently, 56.5% of Americans are opposed to the Iran war, while 35.9% support it, for a net support of -20.6. This compares to -18.9 in my October 26 article.
Midterm elections on Wednesday
All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with results coming in Tuesday night on the US east coast (late Wednesday morning AEDT).
In the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over the Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Due to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, Democrats need at least a net four-seat gain to win control of the Senate.
As I previously wrote, owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance to win the House majority.
The Senate is more skewed towards the Republicans as every state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate on a uniform swing.
In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, the generic ballot gives Democrats a 52.8–43.4 lead over Republicans, a 9.4-point margin. (This is slightly lower than the 9.5-point margin in my October 26 analysis).
Silver’s model gives the Democrats an 82% chance to win the Senate and a 96% chance to win the House (it was respectively 75% and 95% on October 26). This is a new high for Democrats in the Senate this cycle. Democratic chances of winning the Senate had fallen to a low of 50% on September 7, and their chances of winning the House had dropped to 81% on September 3.
While the uniform swing indicates Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win control of the Senate, Silver’s model has Democrats as the favourites to win with a five to six point margin in the generic ballot. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by two to three points.
Democrats lead Republicans by one to four points in polls of the key toss-up Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio. Trump won all these states by double-digit margins in 2024. However, Democrats only lead by four to five points in Republican-held Maine and Democratic-held Michigan. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024, while Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points.
In South Carolina and Nebraska, Republicans only lead in polling for the Senate races by about one point. If the Democrats have a great election night, they will win all the Senate seats where they currently lead, as well as South Carolina. An independent (Dan Osborn) could also expect to win in Nebraska. That would give Democrats a 55–44 Senate majority, plus one for Osborn.
However, Democrats only lead by more than five points in one Republican-held Senate seat (North Carolina). If the polls are systematically overstating Democrats by four points, North Carolina could be the Democrats’ only gain, for a 52–48 Republican Senate majority.
The large majority of elections in the US use the first-past-the-post system. Usually, this has little impact as minor party candidates get under 2% of votes in US elections. But in Montana, Silver’s aggregate has Republican Kurt Alme on 41.2%, independent Seth Bodnar on 32.6% and Democrat Alani Bankhead on 17.0%. Preferential voting could give Bodnar a much better chance at victory.
Poll closing times in key Senate contests
Some states and key moments on Wednesday AEDT will be:
At 10am, the first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky. Early counting there will give observers an idea of how much damage Democrats are doing to Republicans in their rural strongholds
At 11am, polls close in South Carolina and Florida’s eastern zone. Counting in Florida will be fast. In South Carolina, Republican incumbent Senator Darline Graham leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 1.3 points in Silver’s aggregate, and in Florida, Republican incumbent Senator Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 5.9 points
At 11:30am, polls close in Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted by 3.0 points
At noon, polls close in Maine and in Texas’, Kansas’ and Michigan’s eastern zones. In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 3.5 points; in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall by 3.3 points; in Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 4.7 points; and in Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins by 4.0 points
At 1pm, polls close in Iowa, Nebraska and Louisiana. In Iowa’s Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by 0.7 points. In Nebraska, Republican incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn by 0.8 points (without a Democrat in the race). In Louisiana, Republican Julia Letlow leads Democrat Jamie Davis by 3.9 points
At 4pm, polls close in Alaska’s eastern time zone, with polls closing in the western part of the state an hour later. Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan by 2.6 points.
Poll closing times listed here are from The Green Papers. I’ve included all Senate contests where Silver’s aggregate is within five points. Some states are split across two time zones. In this case, polls in the leading time zone usually close an hour before those in the trailing zone.
The earliest statewide races can be called is when all polls are closed.
Economic data
Americans head to the polls this week at a difficult time for the economy.
Americans are currently paying an average of US$4.17 a gallon for regular petrol – historically high but down from US$4.29 a gallon in my October 26 analysis and US$4.48 on September 25. Owing to profits and taxes, the retail price of petrol will be higher than the commodity price.
The commodity price of petrol had surged from a low of US$2.99 a gallon on August 27 to US$3.59 on September 23. The price today has crashed 8.1% to US$2.90, the lowest since early August.
I previously reported there had been similar surges in the price of oil, but that surge hasn’t yet carried over to the petrol price, but today’s oil price slump has carried over. On election day, the petrol price will be much cheaper than in late September.
In last night’s session, the benchmark US S&P stock market index dropped a further 0.5%, following a 1.8% slump last Friday, to fall to its lowest level since July 31. It’s down 3.6% from the October 6 peak, but still up 8.6% from the week before the Iran war began in late February and up 14.4% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March. Some of the gloss has come off the AI boom.
In September, personal income increased by 0.2%, but expenditures increased by 0.5%. The personal savings rate was down 0.2% since August to 3.8%, its lowest since October 2022.
In the September quarter, GDP increased 3.4% in annualised terms (0.85% in quarter on quarter terms). GDP growth was up from 2.2% annualised in the June quarter.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
