The midterms will change US politics. But NZ will keep feeling the Trump effect
- Written by: Weekend Times
As New Zealanders begin voting in their own general election, Americans are also heading to the polls in Congressional midterm elections with major implications for the years ahead.
Despite being on the other side of the Pacific, what happens next in Washington DC will have potentially high stakes for New Zealand.
In the United States, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives (plus six non-voting seats from US territories) and 35 Senate seats are on the line.
Republicans control both chambers of Congress and have largely rubber-stamped President Donald Trump’s agenda for two years. The Supreme Court has also done its best to insulate the executive branch from legal liability for its actions.
Even taking control of one chamber in Congress would give Democrats real power.
The House could check a president who has already refused to spend money Congress appropriated. And it could use committees to summon officials to testify, a prospect that might trouble Trump appointees.
The Senate could confirm or withhold executive appointment of officials and judges, including any Supreme Court vacancy. All of this could affect US relations with small nations such as New Zealand. But to what extent?
The turning Republican tide
At his campaign rallies, Trump has made the midterms – like his presidency – about him. But midterm elections are historically a litmus test of a president’s performance, and the president’s party typically loses seats.
Add inflation, crushingly high fuel prices driven by the administration’s unpopular attack on Iran, plus widespread concern about government corruption, and it’s unsurprising only 32% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance.
In the House, indicators point to Democratic gains of between five and 24 seats; only five are needed to secure a majority.
The effect of Republican gerrymandering, designed to tilt local races in the party’s favour, remains to be seen. And a promised flood of federal “election observers” to polling places on election day may have a chilling effect.
But these factors may have contributed to a surge in early voting, too. Gerrymandering may shape the size of the win, but with polls heavily in Democrats’ favour, the safe bet is still a Democratic House in 2027.
The Senate is a tougher proposition (though more promising than it looked months ago). Democrats need 51 seats (they currently hold 47, counting two independents), with Vice President JD Vance casting the deciding vote in any split decisions.
Democrats must hold seats in Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire and Minnesota, where Republicans are more competitive than they had hoped. There are also opportunities to pick up seats in Alaska, Maine, Texas and North Carolina.
Even Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas have become toss-ups. That the president is campaigning in Republican strongholds like Kansas and Texas tells you how the White House is reading the polls.
Read more: Nearly all Americans believe corruption is a problem. But will it decide the midterm elections?
No immediate change
A decisive Democratic victory would change the political dynamics in the US for two years. But what this means for New Zealand may be less than some might hope, at least in the short term.
Geopolitical uncertainty and spiking oil prices due to the Iran conflict, and the impact of trade tariffs on economic activity, top the list of local concerns.
But both are matters of foreign policy, which has historically and constitutionally been the executive’s remit in the US system.
Moreover, Americans are living through a moment of nearly unbridled executive authority, enabled by Supreme Court decisions and Trump’s apparent belief in his own infallibility.
On the other hand, he is a self-styled dealmaker, which suggests a resolution to the Iran war may be in the offing in the coming months. That could be more heavily influenced by Israel’s inconclusive October 27 election and what happens next with government formation.
Tariffs may be harder for Trump to give up. New Zealand exports currently face a 12.5% tariff, except for beef and kiwifruit. These tariffs are unpopular in the US, and Trump’s first attempt to impose them was struck down in a rare disagreement with the Supreme Court.
The revised justification for tariffs is that most countries, New Zealand included, rely on forced labour. That is undoubtedly true of some nations, but the indiscriminate application of tariffs is a dubious response.
Tariffs are likely to remain Trump’s favoured economic cudgel. We can expect him to hold course, but with more legal challenges to the policy to come.
An end to MAGA politics?
There is another potential effect of the midterms which may prove the most lasting.
As others have observed, New Zealand politics has not been immune to the influence of Trump’s MAGA movement and its polarising style.
New Zealand’s election season opened with antagonistic immigration messaging by New Zealand First. But some policy proposals have noticeably faded during the campaign, perhaps a tacit acknowledgement of the waning popular influence of MAGA-style politics.
Should the Republican party suffer anything close to the catastrophic result many polls suggest, this brand of politicking might be jettisoned beyond the US itself.
The serious political, economic and environmental problems facing Aotearoa New Zealand and the US demand a more thoughtful, constructive dialogue. The outcome of the midterms may be a turning point in that regard, at least.
Timothy Fadgen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
